Covid-19 Pandemic Research & Commentary

M.E is undertaking a number a studies into the impacts of the Covid-19 Pandemic.This page provides links to our research and commentary (and will be updated periodically).

Economic Aspects of Level 4 and Level 3 Lockdown

This paper examines implications for the New Zealand economy and community of different alert levels under the Covid-19 emergency, notably the move from Level 4 to Level 3 on April 28.

In examining the key trade-off between the “reward” of more business activity and the “risk” of heightened transmission, the study focuses on “workplace bubbles”. Places with interactions mostly “within bubble” are relatively lower risk, places with “shared bubbles” where several entities interact are higher risk, those which are “public-facing” are relatively higher risk again. Equally, small operations with fewer interactions are also relatively low risk, those medium sized and larger have more interactions and imply more risk. Alert Levels are compared for numbers and sectors able to work (the reward side) and the implications for workplace transmission (the risk side).

The research finds the shift to Alert Level 3 is an economically efficient outcome. Allowing more business to occur in lower risk categories delivers substantial increases in activity, while maintaining relatively lower risk of higher transmission. It also finds the lock-down effects are not spread evenly across New Zealand, with least impact in smaller rural areas, and relatively greater impacts in the major cities, and especially places where tourism is significant. 

Download M.E's Discussion Paper below:

Economic Aspects of Level 4 and Level 3 Economic Aspects of Level 4 and Level 3 (826 KB)


See our other recent articles on Covid-19:

Shifting to Alert Level 2 is Not a Walk in the Park Shifting to Alert Level 2 is Not a Walk in the Park (120 KB)

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